Oil had its worst session of the crisis. WTI for May delivery settled at $83.85, down ~12%, and Brent for June at $90.38, off ~9% (some outlets put Brent nearer $88, off ~11%). Both went in firm: Thursday’s close was Brent $99.39 and WTI $94.69.
The trigger was a single post. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi declared commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz “completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire,” tied to a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce agreed earlier in the day. Trump thanked Tehran and confirmed the opening, while stating the US naval blockade of Iranian ports (imposed Apr 13) stays until a deal.
The market priced a reopening. The water did not deliver one. A declaration is not a transit. Mines remain uncleared across the channel. Hull war-risk premiums sit at ~1.5-5% of hull (core poolable P&I and the blue cards stayed in force throughout; what lapsed were the charterers’ war-risk extensions). Iran’s “open” still routes vessels through an IRGC-coordinated corridor past mapped minefields, and US and Israeli-linked tonnage remains excluded. Traffic has been down ~95% from the ~138 transits a day that was normal.
Watch: Whether actual transits rise or the “open” stays rhetorical; the Lebanon truce holding (it is the load-bearing condition Iran attached); when war-risk underwriters re-rate; and whether the US blockade and the Iranian corridor can both stand without colliding.