Scenario Reports
Probability-weighted analysis of high-impact events with structured what-if outcomes.
Iran, Oil and the US Midterms: Five Paths
An October 13, 2026 assessment of five paths for US-Iran talks, military action and oil prices around the November 3 midterms, with a November 10 review horizon.
The Midterm Clause: Five Paths From the Channel to Nov. 3
Witkoff and Kushner sat down with Araghchi for three hours on Sep. 22, the first direct US-Iran contact of the crisis, and Trump immediately put a date on the outcome that neither Tehran nor the strait controls: right after the midterms. Five paths run to Nov. 3 on what the channel and Hormuz flow actually do before that date arrives.
The Deferral Device: Six Paths on Whether Aramco Declares Force Majeure
Yanbu has stopped loading and no Saudi crude has departed since Sep. 11, yet Aramco has declared no force majeure. Six paths run to Oct. 16 on whether it does. The refusal is deliberate: force majeure is the more expensive instrument, because declaring it forces pro-rata allocation and ends Riyadh's ability to cut Europe while keeping Asia in the dark.
The Synchronization Question: Five Paths for the Two-Front Strike Warning
Saudi, US, and regional intelligence warned Aug 6 of a coordinated Iraqi militia-Houthi campaign against Gulf energy infrastructure under IRGC direction. Five paths run through Aug 21 on whether two separately-commanded proxy networks can actually synchronize, and what happens to Abqaiq, Ras Tanura, and Yanbu if they do.
The Damietta Question: Five Paths for Whether Egypt's Silence Holds
A drone hit two LNG vessels at Egypt's Damietta port on Jul 29, the first strike on Egyptian soil this war, and four days on nobody has claimed it and Cairo has named no one. Five paths run through whether that silence holds, because Suez and SUMED are now the last segment of the Gulf-to-Europe crude chain this war hasn't touched.
The Zero-Casualty Line: Five Paths for Iran's Retaliation Choice After the Six-Province Strike
CENTCOM struck Iranian soil directly across six southern provinces overnight, the first hit on Iran itself since the Jul 24-25 pause and a sharper escalation than Tuesday's Iraq-only proxy strikes. Iran claimed full control of the Strait of Hormuz hours after the strikes hit the exact assets that claim depends on. Five paths run through the fourteen days to Aug 13 on how Tehran answers, and whether the naval zero-casualty line holds.
The Standing Authorization: Four Paths for Iraq's Third Front
Iraq's new coalition strikes carry a justification that doesn't reset: CENTCOM's rolling drone-attack tally means the next strike needs no fresh provocation. Four paths run through the two weeks to Aug 12 on whether that mechanism stays a contained proxy skirmish or turns Iraq into the fastest-moving of the crisis's three fronts.
The Abqaiq Reversal: Five Paths for Whether Saudi Arabia's Two Wars Become One
Saudi Arabia absorbed a strike that knocked out half its oil output in 2019 without firing back. This time, a far smaller and still-unconfirmed hit drew two retaliatory strikes in 48 hours. Five paths run through the next two weeks on whether that reversal keeps a cooling Iran-US track and a hardening Houthi-Saudi track separate, or merges them, and whether Yanbu survives either way.
The Sounion Test: What Comes After the First Confirmed Strike at Bab el-Mandeb
A Saudi-flagged tanker has been hit and confirmed burning at Bab el-Mandeb, resolving yesterday's open question. Five paths now run through the next fourteen days on the narrower one: does Riyadh convert its threat of force into action, and does the corridor go the way of the Sounion or hold as a priced, tolerated risk.
The Xin Long Yang Test: Five Paths for Saudi Arabia's Last Bypass
One VLCC has now reversed course twice in as many days off Bab el-Mandeb, the clearest live test of whether Saudi Arabia's last Hormuz bypass survives. The panel's tree runs from a paper embargo that never bites to Riyadh's own guns, with the ship's next move the fastest-resolving indicator on the board.
Closed Until Further Notice: Five Paths From the Blown Deadline
The IRGC's first formal total-closure declaration in 135 days, a third CENTCOM wave, and the war's first four-country Gulf barrage all landed after Friday's $76.01 Brent close printed. Two independently weighted panel models put fair value $8-13 above that stale tape before futures reopen tonight. Five paths through the next 7-14 days, and the single fastest-resolving indicator: the fate of the next tracked merchant transit through the southern corridor, observable inside 72 hours.
The Vacant Veto: Five Paths From the Second Exchange
CENTCOM's second strike on Iran and Tehran's retaliation against Bahrain and Kuwait land while no single Iranian authority holds a functioning veto over the IRGC. Five paths, a $5.65 gap between the market's after-hours print and what this tree implies, and the one confirmation that resolves most of the uncertainty inside 48 hours.
The Linkage Clause: Five Paths From Lebanon to Hormuz
Hezbollah voided its Lebanon ceasefire and fired on Ashdod Naval Base June 30. The IRGC's standing warning that any ceasefire violation suspends all related processes gives Tehran's hardliners an ambiguous trigger over the Hormuz stand-down. Five paths, a market that has not priced the linkage, and the single sentence that separates noise from a reopened war.
Bahrain and Kuwait Struck: Four Paths from Day 121
Iran's overnight strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait crossed a threshold that expands the escalation envelope for every subsequent move. Four scenario paths, a $23-25 Brent underpricing, and a 72-hour decision window.
After the Strike: Four Paths from Tehran's Decision Room
CENTCOM struck Iran for the first time in 120 days. The Burgenstock roadmap is nominally intact. Tehran has four options, and which one it chooses in the next 48-72 hours determines whether Brent trades $67 or $92. The FM's continued silence on escalatory language is the highest-signal variable in oil markets.
Hormuz Strait Reopening Scenarios
Three-scenario framework for the unsigned 60-day Hormuz MoU at Day 94: signed with mines cleared and flow resuming (40%, Brent $80-88), signed but commercially shut under reversible waivers and uncleared mines (35%, Brent $88-95), and talks collapse with combat resuming (25%, Brent $110-120). The April war-snapback tail did not fire; the structural-stall case is what materialized. Strait open on paper, near-zero transits since ~May 6, ~600 tankers trapped inside the Gulf and 240-plus outside.