Scenario Reports
Probability-weighted analysis of high-impact events with structured what-if outcomes.
The Sounion Test: What Comes After the First Confirmed Strike at Bab el-Mandeb
A Saudi-flagged tanker has been hit and confirmed burning at Bab el-Mandeb, resolving yesterday's open question. Five paths now run through the next fourteen days on the narrower one: does Riyadh convert its threat of force into action, and does the corridor go the way of the Sounion or hold as a priced, tolerated risk.
The Xin Long Yang Test: Five Paths for Saudi Arabia's Last Bypass
One VLCC has now reversed course twice in as many days off Bab el-Mandeb, the clearest live test of whether Saudi Arabia's last Hormuz bypass survives. The panel's tree runs from a paper embargo that never bites to Riyadh's own guns, with the ship's next move the fastest-resolving indicator on the board.
Closed Until Further Notice: Five Paths From the Blown Deadline
The IRGC's first formal total-closure declaration in 135 days, a third CENTCOM wave, and the war's first four-country Gulf barrage all landed after Friday's $76.01 Brent close printed. Two independently weighted panel models put fair value $8-13 above that stale tape before futures reopen tonight. Five paths through the next 7-14 days, and the single fastest-resolving indicator: the fate of the next tracked merchant transit through the southern corridor, observable inside 72 hours.
The Vacant Veto: Five Paths From the Second Exchange
CENTCOM's second strike on Iran and Tehran's retaliation against Bahrain and Kuwait land while no single Iranian authority holds a functioning veto over the IRGC. Five paths, a $5.65 gap between the market's after-hours print and what this tree implies, and the one confirmation that resolves most of the uncertainty inside 48 hours.
The Linkage Clause: Five Paths From Lebanon to Hormuz
Hezbollah voided its Lebanon ceasefire and fired on Ashdod Naval Base June 30. The IRGC's standing warning that any ceasefire violation suspends all related processes gives Tehran's hardliners an ambiguous trigger over the Hormuz stand-down. Five paths, a market that has not priced the linkage, and the single sentence that separates noise from a reopened war.
Bahrain and Kuwait Struck: Four Paths from Day 121
Iran's overnight strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait crossed a threshold that expands the escalation envelope for every subsequent move. Four scenario paths, a $23-25 Brent underpricing, and a 72-hour decision window.
After the Strike: Four Paths from Tehran's Decision Room
CENTCOM struck Iran for the first time in 120 days. The Burgenstock roadmap is nominally intact. Tehran has four options, and which one it chooses in the next 48-72 hours determines whether Brent trades $67 or $92. The FM's continued silence on escalatory language is the highest-signal variable in oil markets.
Hormuz Strait Reopening Scenarios
Three-scenario framework for the unsigned 60-day Hormuz MoU at Day 94: signed with mines cleared and flow resuming (40%, Brent $80-88), signed but commercially shut under reversible waivers and uncleared mines (35%, Brent $88-95), and talks collapse with combat resuming (25%, Brent $110-120). The April war-snapback tail did not fire; the structural-stall case is what materialized. Strait open on paper, near-zero transits since ~May 6, ~600 tankers trapped inside the Gulf and 240-plus outside.