Iran fired one or more ballistic missiles toward Kuwait overnight, intercepted, in the sharpest escalation since the ceasefire went indefinite. CENTCOM called it an “egregious ceasefire violation.” The launch was preceded by ~5 one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz.
The exchange followed US “self-defense” strikes around May 25 on two IRGC boats reported to be emplacing mines in the strait, plus a surface-to-air missile site at Bandar Abbas. Iranian outlets reported casualties. Kuwait, a US partner that has absorbed repeated drone attacks through the war, is again in the firing line.
This is the pattern of the indefinite truce: low-level kinetic exchange continues while the paper holds. The US strikes Iranian assets it judges threatening; Iran answers against Gulf partners; both sides insist the ceasefire stands. The danger is that one of these cycles coincides with the fragile state of negotiations and removes the off-ramp. Iran is still actively working the minefield, which matters for any reopening: even a deal cannot move hulls through mines that are still being laid. Brent held in the mid-$90s, the market treating the clash as noise around a deal it still expects.
Watch: Kuwaiti and Gulf-state response and any move toward joining the US posture; whether the strikes derail the deal track or are walled off from it; continued mine-laying as the binding obstacle to reopening; and whether the next US-Iran cycle stays contained.