US officials say Washington and Tehran have reached a tentative agreement to turn the ceasefire into a more durable settlement. The memorandum is not signed: Trump has not approved it, and Iranian state media says it is not finalized on Tehran’s end either.
The reported terms are the most concrete of the crisis. Over a 60-day window, the Strait of Hormuz reopens with no tolls and Iran clears the mines it laid within 30 days. In exchange, the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports in proportion to restored commercial traffic and issues sanctions waivers letting Iran sell oil. The draft also carries Iranian commitments to forgo nuclear weapons and to negotiate the disposal of its enriched uranium and a suspension of enrichment.
This is the closest thing to an off-ramp in 90 days, and it is one re-demand away from collapse, the pattern that has recurred since the Islamabad talks failed in April. The hard parts are sequencing and credibility: Iran will not clear mines and surrender its only coercive card before relief is irreversible, and Washington will not lift the blockade before transits resume and the nuclear file locks. The waivers themselves are reversible licenses, not durable relief. Markets leaned into it: Brent traded in the high $90s, capping a month down ~19%, its worst since 2020.
Watch: Whether Trump signs or attaches new demands; whether Tehran ratifies given its contested leadership; the 30-day mine-clearance clock as the real test; and whether actual transits rise, the only hard signal that the deal is more than paper.