Iran launched ~20-30 ballistic missiles at Israel on June 7 evening, the first direct Iranian strike on Israeli territory since the April 8 ceasefire declaration. Israeli air defenses intercepted the majority. The trigger: the IDF killed Hussain Makled, Hezbollah’s intelligence chief, in a strike on Dahiyeh — violating Israel’s own ceasefire commitment not to target Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah had fired at northern Israel first, giving Israel its procedural justification.
Israel responded with at least two waves of air strikes inside Iran. Explosions were confirmed in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and the Mahshahr petrochemical complex in Khuzestan Province. IDF stated it is prepared for “several more days of fighting” and potentially a full resumption of the war. The exchange is ongoing as of June 8.
What changed: The Lebanon ceasefire — the primary diplomatic buffer between the MOU track and open war — has effectively collapsed. The sequence that v46 identified as the Bab el-Mandeb activation trigger has now fired: Lebanon escalation, Iran red line, direct bilateral exchange. Pakistan Interior Minister Naqvi was in Tehran delivering a mediation letter when Iran launched. No Khamenei acknowledgment of the letter has been confirmed. Trump is demanding both sides stop while explicitly keeping the Hormuz blockade in place.
What to watch: Does Iran fire a third missile wave? Does IDF escalate to Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure? Does Houthi maritime action follow at Bab el-Mandeb?
Probability revisions: MOU 1-3% (down from 3-5%). Bab el-Mandeb activation 38-44% (up from 28-32%). Full war resumption risk: 15-20% (entered from near-zero).
Sources: Times of Israel liveblog (June 8), Al Jazeera liveblog (June 8), Bloomberg, Axios, Jerusalem Post, Geo.tv (Naqvi letter), CNN (Trump post), Trading Economics (Brent ~$96-97).