Iran downed a US Army AH-64 Apache over the Strait of Hormuz on June 9, the first US aircraft lost to Iranian fire in this crisis. Both pilots were rescued uninjured by a Navy unmanned surface vessel, the first sea-drone rescue in US military history. CENTCOM answered within hours, striking ~20 Iranian air-defense, radar, and ground-control targets near Hormuz in a four-hour window before declaring operations complete. It is the largest single-night US strike package of the conflict.
Iran counterstruck early June 10 across three host nations: drones at 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, the first Iranian strike on Jordanian territory in this conflict. Jordan intercepted all five missiles. No casualties or damage confirmed anywhere. Tehran’s claim of hits on 21 facilities, including F-35 hangars, is denied by host nations.
Both sides built off-ramps into the exchange. Panel assessment: full war resumption rises to 18-24% from 12-13%. The deciding window is the next 24 hours. If Washington absorbs the counterstrike, the cycle closes; a second US strike night triggers the IRGC’s stated Hormuz closure tripwire. Brent sat flat near $91, pricing none of the tail.
Watch: any further US strike on Iranian territory; host-nation basing statements from Amman and Kuwait City in the next 48 hours; any Iranian strike producing casualties.