Trump declared a second consecutive strike night on June 10: “We hit them hard yesterday. We’re going to hit them again hard today.” No new US strikes had executed as of 2pm ET, but the declaration kills the absorption scenario and collides with the IRGC’s on-record June 6 tripwire: another US strike on Iranian territory means a move to “completely close” Hormuz. With the strait already at 2 transits per day, closure now means active interdiction. Watch for mining of the traffic lanes, anti-ship missiles at US warships, or strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure.
Hours earlier, the tanker Settebello (Palau-flagged, 24 of 28 crew Indian) took a suspected US missile hit to its engine room ~20nm off Sohar, Oman. One crew member is dead per multiple outlets (Reuters reports one injured) and two are missing. Ambrey assesses the strike as likely US blockade enforcement; CENTCOM has not commented. It is the 8th vessel disabled since April 13 and the probable first seafarer death of the campaign.
Panel revision: full war resumption 28-36% (from 18-24%), stalemate 42-50% (from 52-58%). Brent repriced midday, +2.4% to $93.63.
Watch: execution and target set of tonight’s US strike; any minelayer sortie from Bandar Abbas or Qeshm; Indian government response on Settebello.