Washington has given Iran until today, Saturday July 11, to publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz fully open, all channels, toll-free, and to pledge no further attacks on commercial vessels. A US official put it bluntly: if that is not Iran's position, "it is not gonna be a great day for them." The statement is expected after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's meeting today in Muscat with Oman's foreign minister on mechanisms for the safe transit of ships.

The demand collides head-on with Tehran's stated position. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Friday the strait "will not return to pre-war conditions" and reaffirmed transit tolls from mid-August. A senior US official tied the deadline to diplomacy as well: without safe passage assured, nuclear talks will "never" start.

One side gives today or the deadline blows, and after two CENTCOM waves hit ~170 targets this week, a third strike wave is the obvious follow-through. Oil markets are closed Saturday; Brent's Friday close of $76.01 makes Monday's open the market's verdict on whatever Muscat produces.

Watch for: the exact wording of any post-Muscat Iranian statement (a "toll-free, all channels" declaration versus hedged "Iranian arrangements" language), US follow-through if the deadline lapses, and any announcement of a resumed-talks venue in Qatar or Pakistan.