Saturday's ultimatum resolved to its hard side. Rather than the toll-free, all-channels reopening Washington demanded, IRGC Navy declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice," citing "unlawful interference by outside parties." No reopening statement was ever issued out of Saturday's Muscat meeting.
CENTCOM answered with a third consecutive strike wave that evening, ~140 targets, then continued strikes through Monday, including the first US combat use of one-way attack sea drones. Cumulative targets this week now exceed 300.
Iran's response has been to widen, not narrow, the fight. Over the weekend it struck Oman directly, its first strike there Tehran has not disputed or retracted, while renewing strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar. A Kuwait Oil Company offshore platform took a drone strike, the first direct hit on GCC energy-production infrastructure since the ceasefire era began. Saudi Arabia was notably not targeted.
Iran and the US/JMIC now dispute the strait's actual status: Iran says closed, JMIC says the southern corridor remains open and expanded, and Trump told CNN it is "open as far as we're concerned." Tracked commercial traffic has fallen to a trickle regardless of who is right.
Watch for: any strike reaching Saudi Arabia or Qatar's Al Udeid base, confirmed mining activity inside the strait, and whether Oman, hit without the deniability of Iran's disputed March strikes, or repeatedly-struck Bahrain push publicly for a ceasefire.