BRENT -
WTI -
NAT GAS -
EUR/USD -
GBP/USD -
USD/CNY -
USD/INR -
USD/JPY -
HORMUZ BLOCKADE HOLDS, ACTIVELY HOSTILE: JUST 1 TANKER TRANSITED JUL 23, LOWEST SINCE MAY 7; ~70% OF TANKERS NOW RUNNING DARK / CENTCOM STRIKE CAMPAIGN PAUSE HOLDS THROUGH A SECOND CONSECUTIVE NIGHT, TIED TO DIRECT OMAN-IRAN TALKS ON REOPENING MECHANICS (IRAN STILL CALLS IT PROGRESS, ONE-SIDED, NO STATED MECHANISM, NO DEAL) / NAVAL BLOCKADE ENFORCEMENT: 12 VESSELS REDIRECTED, 2 DISABLED, 2 BOARDED / CUMULATIVE US MILITARY DEATHS: DISPUTED, PENTAGON COUNT DROP FROM 18 TO 14 NOW READS AS LIKELY RECLASSIFICATION OF POST-CEASEFIRE DEATHS, STILL UNCORRECTED / ~447-482 WOUNDED (SOURCE-INCONSISTENT) / WAR-RISK PREMIUMS ~5% HULL VALUE (NEW MARKET NORM, WITHIN 3-10% BAND) / Day 149 afternoon / BRENT $96.78/bbl (-3.9% Jul 24 settlement, pre-strike), MONDAY ASIA OPEN STILL THE FIRST PRICE TEST OF THE ARAMCO STRIKES / DEAL COLLAPSE: 85-90% / Physical reopening: Q4 2026 BASE CASE
BAB EL-MANDEB HOUTHIS STRIKE ARAMCO DIRECTLY: missiles and drones hit Jizan refinery and Yanbu export terminal overnight Jul 24-25, first direct strike on Saudi oil infrastructure this crisis window; Patriot intercepted 2 missiles at Yanbu, satellite confirms a fire at Jizan, no official Aramco damage assessment yet -- afternoon Jul 26 update: two Asia-based trading contacts report unconfirmed "some damage" at Jizan (Reuters, single-sourced), an uncorroborated analyst claim of ~700,000 bpd East-West Pipeline throughput loss is not carried, Aramco/Saudi government remain silent / Saudi Arabia retaliated a second time Jul 25 (Coalition Joint Forces Command, official statement), warned of further response "without leniency" -- no third Houthi strike as of Jul 26 afternoon / FLAG-BASED BLOCKADE STATUS PRE-DATES THE STRIKE: two Chinese-operated VLCCs (Xin Long Yang, Cosnew Lake; Singapore- and Hong Kong-flagged) carried ~4M bbls of Saudi-origin Yanbu crude through without incident Jul 23-24 / Encelia strike (Jul 22) remains the only confirmed vessel hit; second tanker Layla claimed struck, still unconfirmed / War-risk hull premium: Jizan/Al Shuqaiq tier 1-3% (since Jul 20 declaration), Yanbu's lower ~0.1% tier expected to reprice higher post-strike, no dated print yet / NEW: Ascot and Navium (Lloyd's-linked insurers) restrict war-risk cargo cover for vessels with Saudi Red Sea touchpoints (dated Jul 24) / Closure risk revised up to 75-90%
SUEZ Normal / 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA Normal / 16.3M bbl/d
BRENT -
WTI -
NAT GAS -
EUR/USD -
GBP/USD -
USD/CNY -
USD/INR -
USD/JPY -
HORMUZ BLOCKADE HOLDS, ACTIVELY HOSTILE: JUST 1 TANKER TRANSITED JUL 23, LOWEST SINCE MAY 7; ~70% OF TANKERS NOW RUNNING DARK / CENTCOM STRIKE CAMPAIGN PAUSE HOLDS THROUGH A SECOND CONSECUTIVE NIGHT, TIED TO DIRECT OMAN-IRAN TALKS ON REOPENING MECHANICS (IRAN STILL CALLS IT PROGRESS, ONE-SIDED, NO STATED MECHANISM, NO DEAL) / NAVAL BLOCKADE ENFORCEMENT: 12 VESSELS REDIRECTED, 2 DISABLED, 2 BOARDED / CUMULATIVE US MILITARY DEATHS: DISPUTED, PENTAGON COUNT DROP FROM 18 TO 14 NOW READS AS LIKELY RECLASSIFICATION OF POST-CEASEFIRE DEATHS, STILL UNCORRECTED / ~447-482 WOUNDED (SOURCE-INCONSISTENT) / WAR-RISK PREMIUMS ~5% HULL VALUE (NEW MARKET NORM, WITHIN 3-10% BAND) / Day 149 afternoon / BRENT $96.78/bbl (-3.9% Jul 24 settlement, pre-strike), MONDAY ASIA OPEN STILL THE FIRST PRICE TEST OF THE ARAMCO STRIKES / DEAL COLLAPSE: 85-90% / Physical reopening: Q4 2026 BASE CASE
BAB EL-MANDEB HOUTHIS STRIKE ARAMCO DIRECTLY: missiles and drones hit Jizan refinery and Yanbu export terminal overnight Jul 24-25, first direct strike on Saudi oil infrastructure this crisis window; Patriot intercepted 2 missiles at Yanbu, satellite confirms a fire at Jizan, no official Aramco damage assessment yet -- afternoon Jul 26 update: two Asia-based trading contacts report unconfirmed "some damage" at Jizan (Reuters, single-sourced), an uncorroborated analyst claim of ~700,000 bpd East-West Pipeline throughput loss is not carried, Aramco/Saudi government remain silent / Saudi Arabia retaliated a second time Jul 25 (Coalition Joint Forces Command, official statement), warned of further response "without leniency" -- no third Houthi strike as of Jul 26 afternoon / FLAG-BASED BLOCKADE STATUS PRE-DATES THE STRIKE: two Chinese-operated VLCCs (Xin Long Yang, Cosnew Lake; Singapore- and Hong Kong-flagged) carried ~4M bbls of Saudi-origin Yanbu crude through without incident Jul 23-24 / Encelia strike (Jul 22) remains the only confirmed vessel hit; second tanker Layla claimed struck, still unconfirmed / War-risk hull premium: Jizan/Al Shuqaiq tier 1-3% (since Jul 20 declaration), Yanbu's lower ~0.1% tier expected to reprice higher post-strike, no dated print yet / NEW: Ascot and Navium (Lloyd's-linked insurers) restrict war-risk cargo cover for vessels with Saudi Red Sea touchpoints (dated Jul 24) / Closure risk revised up to 75-90%
SUEZ Normal / 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA Normal / 16.3M bbl/d
BRENT: -
WTI: -
NAT GAS: -
EUR/USD: -
GBP/USD: -
USD/CNY: -
USD/INR: -
USD/JPY: -
HORMUZ: BLOCKADE HOLDS, ACTIVELY HOSTILE: JUST 1 TANKER TRANSITED JUL 23, LOWEST SINCE MAY 7; ~70% OF TANKERS NOW RUNNING DARK / CENTCOM STRIKE CAMPAIGN PAUSE HOLDS THROUGH A SECOND CONSECUTIVE NIGHT, TIED TO DIRECT OMAN-IRAN TALKS ON REOPENING MECHANICS (IRAN STILL CALLS IT PROGRESS, ONE-SIDED, NO STATED MECHANISM, NO DEAL) / NAVAL BLOCKADE ENFORCEMENT: 12 VESSELS REDIRECTED, 2 DISABLED, 2 BOARDED / CUMULATIVE US MILITARY DEATHS: DISPUTED, PENTAGON COUNT DROP FROM 18 TO 14 NOW READS AS LIKELY RECLASSIFICATION OF POST-CEASEFIRE DEATHS, STILL UNCORRECTED / ~447-482 WOUNDED (SOURCE-INCONSISTENT) / WAR-RISK PREMIUMS ~5% HULL VALUE (NEW MARKET NORM, WITHIN 3-10% BAND) / Day 149 afternoon / BRENT $96.78/bbl (-3.9% Jul 24 settlement, pre-strike), MONDAY ASIA OPEN STILL THE FIRST PRICE TEST OF THE ARAMCO STRIKES / DEAL COLLAPSE: 85-90% / Physical reopening: Q4 2026 BASE CASE
BAB EL-MANDEB: HOUTHIS STRIKE ARAMCO DIRECTLY: missiles and drones hit Jizan refinery and Yanbu export terminal overnight Jul 24-25, first direct strike on Saudi oil infrastructure this crisis window; Patriot intercepted 2 missiles at Yanbu, satellite confirms a fire at Jizan, no official Aramco damage assessment yet -- afternoon Jul 26 update: two Asia-based trading contacts report unconfirmed "some damage" at Jizan (Reuters, single-sourced), an uncorroborated analyst claim of ~700,000 bpd East-West Pipeline throughput loss is not carried, Aramco/Saudi government remain silent / Saudi Arabia retaliated a second time Jul 25 (Coalition Joint Forces Command, official statement), warned of further response "without leniency" -- no third Houthi strike as of Jul 26 afternoon / FLAG-BASED BLOCKADE STATUS PRE-DATES THE STRIKE: two Chinese-operated VLCCs (Xin Long Yang, Cosnew Lake; Singapore- and Hong Kong-flagged) carried ~4M bbls of Saudi-origin Yanbu crude through without incident Jul 23-24 / Encelia strike (Jul 22) remains the only confirmed vessel hit; second tanker Layla claimed struck, still unconfirmed / War-risk hull premium: Jizan/Al Shuqaiq tier 1-3% (since Jul 20 declaration), Yanbu's lower ~0.1% tier expected to reprice higher post-strike, no dated print yet / NEW: Ascot and Navium (Lloyd's-linked insurers) restrict war-risk cargo cover for vessels with Saudi Red Sea touchpoints (dated Jul 24) / Closure risk revised up to 75-90%
SUEZ: Normal / 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA: Normal / 16.3M bbl/d