Oil loadings at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu have been suspended, shipping sources told Reuters Tuesday. No Saudi crude has departed the terminal since Sep. 11. Aramco declined to comment, and has still declared no force majeure and named no restart date.
Yanbu is the outlet for the Petroline, the 7M bpd East-West line that exists for one purpose: moving Saudi crude to market without touching the Strait of Hormuz. With the line down since a Sep. 10 drone strike launched from Iraqi territory, and the terminal now dark, the Kingdom has no major export route that avoids a waterway Iran has held closed for 201 days. This desk puts the crude genuinely at risk at 2.0-2.5M bpd. Headline figures of ~4M bpd describe gross terminal throughput including refined products and NGL, and they do not survive a check against Saudi supply of 6.0M bpd in August.
The customer side confirms it. Aramco has cancelled or deferred late-September cargoes for at least three European term buyers, some pushed to November, with two more expected to receive notices. Poland's Orlen, which takes ~40% of its crude from Aramco, is buying North Sea, WTI Midland and CPC Blend instead. At least four Sidi Kerir to Gdansk fixtures failed.
This desk pre-committed to moving escalation from 8 to 9 out of 10 absent a Yanbu loading or an Aramco statement by Sep. 18. Both conditions are met, two days early. Escalation moves to 9 out of 10.
Aramco cancelling term obligations while declining to declare force majeure is the tell. A force majeure says it cannot perform. A November reschedule says it cannot perform for about eight weeks, which is Aramco giving the market a restart estimate by conduct while refusing to give one in words.
Watch for a force majeure declaration, the first Saudi barrels rerouted east through Hormuz, and whether Aramco names a restart date before tank cover runs out around Sep. 19-21.