Saudi Arabia has restarted the Petroline, the East-West line built to move crude to market without touching the Strait of Hormuz, and a cargo was scheduled to load at Yanbu on Tuesday bound for China. Three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters. Two said the line is "pumping at a low rate." Aramco did not respond to a request for comment, so the restart landed with no company statement and no force majeure.
Aramco is reported to be seeking 4M bpd. That is a target rather than a measured flow, and a security source in the same wire said full resumption could take weeks. Kpler said on Sep. 17 that restoring 2.0-2.5M bpd would take about a month. Tuesday's wire does not contradict Kpler.
What it contradicts is us. On Sep. 16 this desk wrote that the Kingdom "has no major export route that avoids" Hormuz. It has one, it is running, and the first barrels out of it are going east rather than west. Escalation cuts from 9 to 8 out of 10. Our own definition of 9 required export capability at or near zero on all routes, and that clause is now false.
Brent settled Tuesday at its lowest since Sep. 8, a fifth straight losing session, and trades $99.43 today.
Watch three things: the pumping rate, whether that China cargo actually sails, and Yanbu tank levels.