What happened
UKMTO issued five reports on October 5 for the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile at 1637 UTC that day, starting an engine-room fire. Three late reports add an LPG tanker and a crude tanker hit on October 4, and a crude tanker struck above the waterline on October 3. In a fifth report, the IRGC hailed an inbound tanker ~11nm north of Khasab and ordered it to turn back or be fired on. The master complied.
India's foreign ministry said on October 6 that the Panama-flagged Aframax On Peace was hit by a projectile in the strait on October 5, causing a fire. Twelve of its 19 crew were injured, 11 of them Indian. Oman airlifted crew to Khasab for treatment. UKMTO has not formally tied the ship to its October 5 report.
Immediate impact
These are the first crew injuries reported in this month's strikes, and they land on top of the Lipsi incident. Our maritime panel reads the turn-back as Iran enforcing access ship by ship even as exports recover. Indian crews are a known pressure point, as The Manning Gate set out. Brent settled ~$100.6 on Tuesday and traded ~$101 on Wednesday.
What to watch
A fatality or a confirmed disabled hull would move this desk's threat assessment from 8/10 to 9/10.
Sources: UKMTO warnings via gCaptain, October 5; India Ministry of External Affairs via gCaptain and TASS, October 6; TradingEconomics, October 7.