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BY THE HARBORMASTER · TANKERBRIEF DESK · ENERGY AND SHIPPING ANALYSIS
On April 17, Foreign Minister Araghchi stood before cameras and declared Hormuz "open." Brent fell 11% in three hours. Twenty days later, commercial transits had reached zero.
The market priced the statement. Not the act.
Today is Day 94 of the closure. Brent trades at $91. An MoU sits unsigned on a table in Doha. The market is making the same trade it made in April, at a larger scale, against harder physics.
Whether the deal gets done is the wrong question. What matters is what happens to the physical world after it does, and why the gap between "deal signed" and "oil flowing" is wider than $91/bbl implies.
DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THIS BRIEF
JUN 2+1DAY
Hormuz Day 95: The Unexecuted Threat
Iran's dual-chokepoint threat from June 1 has not converted to executed action overnight. Brent consolidated at $94.58 as Lebanon Round 4 talks open in Washington -- a 48-hour window to prevent the escalation cascade Iran threatened.
JUN 3+2DAYS
Qeshm Struck, Kuwait Airport Hit: Hormuz Day 96
US strikes IRGC's Qeshm C2 hub; Iran drones Kuwait International Airport. Day 96 expands the escalation band on both sides.
JUN 4+3DAYS
Day 97: Lebanon's Paper Ceasefire and the Road Back to the MOU
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire framework, the most direct response yet to Iran's June 1 precondition for resuming MOU talks. Hezbollah isn't a signatory and fighting continued overnight. Brent settled $96.97. MOU odds nudged from 8-10% to 12-15%.