Saudi Arabia started this war with four ways to put crude in front of a buyer. On Day 198 it has one, and that one fits ~1.0-1.3M bbl/day against the ~5M bbl/day its only working pipeline was carrying until Sep. 11. Every other fact about the kingdom's position is downstream of that ratio.

Three developments inside seventy-two hours closed the last of it. Houthi forces took Perim Island on Sep. 11, putting the narrowest point of Bab el-Mandeb under the control of an actor that has barred Saudi-flagged hulls by name since August. Drones launched from Iraqi territory hit a pumping station south of Medina on Sep. 10-11, and Saudi Aramco shut the East-West pipeline. Mohammed bin Salman then called Donald Trump twice on Sep. 10 asking for American strikes on the Houthis, and was refused.

Set against those, this desk's own correction is the item that reframes the rest. Petroline was carrying ~5M bbl/day, double the ~2.5M we had booked for months. Against an August supply print of 6.0M bbl/day, a 30-year low, that puts ~83% of national output on a single 1,200km line out of a single stabilisation plant. And at the far end of it, only ~1.0-1.3M bbl/day ever had a buyer.