The paper was signed June 17. Trump and Pezeshkian put presidential signatures on the Versailles MOU at a dinner with Macron, during the G7. Two days later, the talks that were supposed to begin implementing it did not happen. There is no rescheduled date.

The market read the signature as a reopened strait. It is neither open nor on a started clock. As of the June 19 close, outbound commercial transits at Hormuz are running at 5-10% of the pre-crisis baseline. Mine clearance has not begun. The IRGC has not formally stood down. Brent settled around $79.95 as if none of that were true.

Strip the ceremony away, and the signature moved exactly three things, none of them physical. It lifted the oil ban on signing, which is paper-to-paper. It started a 60-day political clock for the nuclear and sanctions talks, which runs parallel to the strait, not as a precondition for it. And it created a dependency chain the signature itself cannot satisfy. Whether the deal gets done was the question for May. The question now is whether a signed document can be implemented by people who do not command the assets it governs. The honest answer, six days in, is that it has not been.