BY THE HARBORMASTER · TANKERBRIEF DESK · ENERGY AND SHIPPING ANALYSIS
SCENARIO PROBABILITIESUpdated: Jun 1, 2026
A 60-day MoU to reopen Hormuz reached tentative agreement May 28 but sits unsigned by both Trump and Tehran, and a signed deal is largely priced into Brent near $91. The old April war-snapback tail never fired and the structural-stall case is essentially what happened: ceasefire indefinite since Apr 21, strait open on paper, transits near zero since ~May 6, ~600 tankers trapped inside the Gulf. The live question is no longer whether the truce holds but whether a signature can clear mines, restore insurance, and actually move hulls.
SIGNED + FLOW RESUMES40%
MoU Signed, Mines Cleared, Commercial Transit Restarts (weeks to months)$80-88/bbl
Framework Dies, Combat Resumes Around a Mined Strait (days to weeks)$110-120/bbl
DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THIS BRIEF
JUN 2+1DAY
Hormuz Day 95: The Unexecuted Threat
Iran's dual-chokepoint threat from June 1 has not converted to executed action overnight. Brent consolidated at $94.58 as Lebanon Round 4 talks open in Washington -- a 48-hour window to prevent the escalation cascade Iran threatened.
JUN 3+2DAYS
Qeshm Struck, Kuwait Airport Hit: Hormuz Day 96
US strikes IRGC's Qeshm C2 hub; Iran drones Kuwait International Airport. Day 96 expands the escalation band on both sides.
JUN 4+3DAYS
Day 97: Lebanon's Paper Ceasefire and the Road Back to the MOU
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire framework, the most direct response yet to Iran's June 1 precondition for resuming MOU talks. Hezbollah isn't a signatory and fighting continued overnight. Brent settled $96.97. MOU odds nudged from 8-10% to 12-15%.