SCENARIO PROBABILITIES Updated: Jul 8, 2026
Models the 7-10 day window after the July 8 CENTCOM-Iran exchange (SITREP v92, morning). Base rates start from the Day 121 Bahrain/Kuwait precedent, an identical strike pattern that preceded a nine-day stand-down rather than further escalation, then adjust down for two factors that precedent didn't have: an unresolved Iranian leadership succession and a sanctions-waiver revocation that is a legal fact, not a statement either side can walk back.
Mourning Window Holds 33%
No casualty confirmed, Bushehr stays unconfirmed, burial passes quietly, Doha reconvenes ~Jul 11-14 $70-75
Hardline Succession 24%
New leadership bloc keeps hitting Gulf targets below the casualty line to prove resolve $78-85
Casualty Cascade 20%
A US or Gulf-host-nation fatality is confirmed, closing the mutual-blame off-ramp $85-93
Podium to Paper 13%
Washington converts 'the MOU is over' into a written instrument on its own clock $77-83
The Bushehr Breach 10%
Independent verification confirms ordnance near the reactor, a ceiling neither side has tested $92-108

CENTCOM struck 80-plus Iranian targets overnight July 7 into 8. Iran hit back within hours, striking Bahrain and Kuwait for the second time in eleven days. Treasury revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver. Trump told NATO's Ankara summit the ceasefire memorandum is "over." Today's brief covers what happened; today's alert carries the immediate facts. This report models what happens next, and the answer turns on a fact neither of those pieces had room to develop: the Iranian decision-making structure that absorbed every prior shock in this crisis no longer exists in the form that absorbed them.