Iran’s joint military command declared the Strait of Hormuz formally closed to all vessels on June 11, executing the IRGC tripwire placed on record June 6: further US strikes on Iranian territory would prompt Iran to “completely close” the strait. The trigger was a US second strike of 49 Tomahawk cruise missiles targeting IRGC facilities in Hormozgan province overnight June 10/11 — the largest single US strike package of the crisis.
Any vessel attempting Hormuz transit now operates under a standing shoot-on-sight order. The declaration converts the soft enforcement closure (April 13 to June 10) into a declared military closure with active naval authorization.
Iran simultaneously struck US bases at Ali Al Salem (Kuwait), 5th Fleet Bahrain, and Azraq (Jordan). IRGC claims an F-35 hangar at Azraq destroyed; host nations deny damage or casualties.
Three Indian crew members are confirmed dead aboard Settebello: deck cadet Aditya Sharma, engine fitter Shivanand Chaurasiya, and Chief Engineer Patnala Suresh. India formally summoned US Chargé d’Affaires Jason Meeks. India crews ~40-45% of Gulf tanker traffic; a maritime union crewing advisory within 72 hours would operationally collapse Gulf tanker operations independent of military developments.
Updated probabilities: full war resumption 45-55% (from 28-36%). Stalemate 35-42%. MOU below 2%.
Watch: Indian maritime union crewing advisory (72-hour window); any IRGC mine-laying or ASCM launch against US warships; Brent settlement and Asian open; second vessel strike off Oman (single source, unconfirmed).