Brent closed at $112.57 as Houthis opened a second chokepoint. Dual Hormuz-Mandeb disruption just broke the bypass math.

Two Chokepoints, Zero Bypass

Yemen’s Houthis launched a ballistic missile toward Beersheba on Saturday morning, opening the war’s newest and most consequential front. IDF intercepted the projectile. No casualties on the ground. But the casualty is strategic: Saudi Arabia’s last functioning bypass route.

Riyadh has been pushing ~2.5M bbl/day through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, covering ~12% of lost Hormuz flow. Every barrel leaving Yanbu must transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis control the Yemeni coastline on the other side of that 20-mile gap.

Houthi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree declared readiness for “direct military intervention.” This is the same force that shut down Red Sea container shipping in 2024-2025, hitting Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd vessels with anti-ship missiles and drones. Their capability is not theoretical. It is operational.

Brent Breaks Out

Metric	Previous	Current	Change
Brent (close)	$108.00	$112.57	+4.22%
WTI (close)	~$94.50	$99.64	+5.46%
WTI (intraday high)	—	$100.04	First time above $100
Goldman risk premium	—	$14-18/bbl	Conservative if Houthis target ships

WTI touching $100 for the first time in this crisis is a psychological threshold. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14-18/bbl geopolitical risk premium already baked in; the Houthi entry adds a second chokepoint premium the market has not yet fully absorbed. Expect Brent above $115 by Monday. If the Houthis demonstrate anti-ship capability in the Red Sea, $120+ is the floor.

Prince Sultan Penetration

Iranian drones and missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on Friday, wounding 10 US service members (2 in serious condition) and damaging at least 2 KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft. The KC-135s are not replaceable in-theater on short notice; they enable the long-range strike sorties keeping pressure on Iranian targets.

Iran used saturation tactics: simultaneous drone swarms and ballistic missiles to overwhelm Patriot battery coverage. This is a doctrinal problem, not a technical one. Saudi and US base defense architecture was designed for single-axis threats.

Nuclear Reddest Line

Bushehr, Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant (1,000 MW, Russian-built), was struck for the third time in ten days. IAEA Director General Grossi called it the “reddest line.” No reactor damage or radiation release, but Rosatom is evacuating staff.

Five Iranian nuclear sites have now been struck: Natanz, Taleghan 2, Arak, Ardakan, and Bushehr (3 times). Netanyahu’s 48-hour blitz continues to systematically degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Russia has protested through diplomatic channels and done nothing else.

The Math

With Hormuz closed and Bab el-Mandeb now contested, the only unimpeded export routes for Gulf crude:

Route	Capacity	Status
UAE Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline	~1.5M bbl/day	Operational but Fujairah under attack risk
Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline	~0.5M bbl/day	Operational; expires Jul 2026
Saudi East-West to Yanbu	~2.5M bbl/day	Bypass route now runs through Houthi fire zone

Combined uncontested capacity: ~2M bbl/day. Lost Hormuz flow: ~8.5M bbl/day. The shortfall just widened.

What to Watch

Shipping operators should avoid Bab el-Mandeb transits immediately and reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. That adds 35-40 days to a Europe-bound voyage from the Gulf, absorbing tonnage and pushing VLCC rates toward $1M/day.

Weekend Islamabad talks are the last diplomatic pressure valve. Pakistan and Egypt are pushing for an Araghchi-Witkoff meeting. Iran has not confirmed. With every escalation vector accelerating simultaneously, the April 6 energy strike deadline is 9 days away and closing fast.